Just how long is too long to vote? How many people don’t vote because of long lines? How big is the problem of long lines? Why do these lines occur? What can be done about it?
Those are the unanswered questions from Heather Gerken’s Democracy Index. She makes a good case for collecting better data about the problem, but never really delves into those questions, especially the core question as to how long is too long?
The first problem is not really Gerken’s. She cites the Cal-Tech MIT study which claims “According to the U.S. Census, Current Population Survey, 2.8 percent of the forty million registered voters who did not vote in 2000 stated that they did not vote because of problems with polling place operations such as lines, hours, or locations.” (Page 9 of the report)
Actually, this number is grossly inaccurate. The actual number of non voting registered voters in 2000 was 18 million, not 40 million. The percentage of those citing the concerns about lines, hours, and locations was 2.6%. That means that instead of 1.2 million voters, we are talking about less than half a million voters. Additionally, within the CTMIT report, and subsequently in the Democracy Index, we see the statistic not accurately described. For example, on page 13 of the Democracy Index the problem is stated thus “According to the 2000 U.S. Census, about one million registered voters said that they did not vote because polling lines were too long or polling hours were too short.” What is left out here is the problem with inconvenient polling places, which accounts for some portion of the Census Bureau statistic. More importantly, Gerken cites the CTMIT study, which does not cite the 2000 Census, but rather the U.S. Census Current Population Survey.
So there exists a document done by two of the finest research institutes in America, that was popularly cited in news articles at the time and now is resurrected in a book by a leading election reform lawyer that inflates the problem of lines at polling places by a factor of at least two, and probably more like a factor of three for self reported problems, and possibly by a factor of 4-5 if we accept the premise of the CTMIT report which states “Similar inflation of the responses might occur with the category “lines” because some people might just be complaining about the system.” (page 87)
So the extent of the problem with lines at polling places is largely unknown. Gerken is correct here that better data collection is a good idea to determine just how big of a problem it is. While Gerken likes polling place observation, I’d prefer something that relies less on observers. In Champaign County we are going to try to create a voluntary method for voters to report on the length of time that it took them to vote. Hopefully, after the primary, we’ll have better data to provide our voters about this issue.
Of course, we don’t want any lines. But we get them anyway, despite our best efforts. So why do these lines occur? From my observations, conversations and reading, this question seems to be resolved in the minds of most policy makers and voters. Election officials understand it to be far more complicated and nuanced. Here again, data will be of great utility. In no particular order these are the reasons I have seen for long lines: too few judges, not enough polling booths, untrained judges, slow judges, and disorganized polling places.
Of these problems, the one most cited by academics seems to be the number of booths followed by “poorly trained judges.”
The number of booths per voter to vote, be they DRE or optical scan, is the one statistic that is most easily obtained, and it would be valuable. However, it is not necessarily determinative of problems. After the last election, I called a county in another state that had a well publicized problem with lines at their polling place. The election administrator was entirely flummoxed by the long line. There were two precincts in a single polling place. The number of voters per machine was essentially the same. One had an extremely long line. The other had no line.
The conventional way of discussing the problems of election judges is to talk of election judge or poll worker training. What is left out, except by election officials, are the nuances to this issue. The problems related to poll workers take many forms.
First, in Illinois, poll workers (election judges) are named by the political parties. While our office trains them there is no mandate in Illinois Election Law that an election judge actually attend training. And yes, we have had people (and their party leader) insist that they be allowed to work in the absence of training.
Second, training can only provide so much guidance. We feel very good about the quality of our training. We have scores of positive comments from judges, both after the training and then after they apply that training on election day. But experience in elections, as in most facets of life, teaches us that training alone doesn’t make for a good worker. Despite the best training, some people will make mistakes. Some judges get flustered in the heat of the moment. Some just don’t retain some details. Some can become intimidated by voters or fellow judges. Even a test after the training can’t accurately predict just which of our 600 judges are going to “get it” on election day.
Third, judges come with a variety of abilities. I have found only one election administration analysis that discusses the issue of speed. “Poll workers who check for registration must demonstrate their ability to find a name on the registration list as they would on the day of election in a reasonable time (for example, twenty seconds).” (Page 3 of Immediate Steps to Avoid Lost Votes in the 2004 Presidential Election) Most analysis leaves out this important element that we all have experienced while shopping, driving, etc. If one person takes one minute to check in a voter while another takes 30 seconds it will often result in lines.
The problems above are almost unknowable for election officials until election day itself. It’s largely unpredictable who is going to perform well and who won’t.
Of course, even if we knew that a judge would be subpar, the question is what we would do about it. The answer is that we probably would still assign them. A slow judge is better than no judge and when you are short, you do the best you can. Obviously judges who have demonstrated either an intolerable level of inaccuracy or disregard for proper election procedures have to be replaced regardless.
One suggestion provided by some analyses is to have extra judges at busier times. In fact, Gerken suggests in her book that Maryland used their excellent data about the peak voter turnout periods to assign more judges during peak periods. I talked to the Board of Elections in Maryland and they don’t actually do that, and I’m guessing that few, if any, states do. Election administrative analyses are littered with similar ill informed cheap shots. For example, the report “Building Confidence in U.S. Elections”, popularly known as the Carter Baker report, makes this remarkably absurd statement. “Fast-food chains hire extra workers at lunchtime, but it apparently did not occur to election officials to hire more workers at the times when most people vote.” (Page 56) Just two pages before within the VERY SAME report, these same analysts say that we were 500,000 judges short in the 2004 election.
With shortages in judges already, it’s hard to imagine that anyone has the ability to hire peak judges. Even if the ability was there in terms of volunteers, the next question is whether the law would allow it. In Illinois, a strict reading of the law would find it illegal, although I can make a case for its legality. This idea is worth a further look, but be careful of the unintended consequences of such a program. Such a program might increase judge staffing at peak times but at the expense of judges during the other periods of the day.
Another factor in lines is the layout of the polling place. Not enough attention is paid to this. Sometimes we are forced into locations that have a tough time working with a large number of voters at once. One of our longstanding goals, which has fallen victim to limited resources, is to map out all of our locations to make sure we’re able to move people in the best way through the process. Sometimes something as simple as adding or moving a couple of tables can improve the process at a polling place.
Of course, the biggest factor in making a polling place run smoothly is to recruit more judges. Doing this requires an increase in pay to allow people to take an unpaid day from work. It also involves keeping the job simpler. The biggest frustration we have in keeping our current judges is that the job becomes so complicated that it elevates the stress level. Simplification of the rules would do a lot to reducing lines and keeping good judges. The trend, unfortunately, is not toward simplification, but rather toward even more complication.
While election officials do their best to predict lines and staff appropriately, there is no telling when people are going to actually show up. No polling place in the country is prepared to have every voter show up when the doors open. We have always known that there is a rush early in the morning and then again after work. In 2008 we first started tracking how many people had voted at various times during the day. Our data is incomplete, but you can see it here. What we found in the 2008 election is that it did not match any of our previous experiences. Of those precincts reporting, 60% of the voters cast a ballot by noon. Just 9% cast a ballot after 5pm. We had reports of up to 100 people waiting in line at 6:00 a.m. when the polls open. Obviously, no amount of training or equipment could make that line go away in the first couple hours.
Our experience was not unique. Fortunately, one state has extraordinarily accurate information about turnout from the November 2008. Maryland uses electronic poll books in every precinct. Because of that, they know the exact time that voters checked in to vote. Their analysis is like ours and demonstrates that an unusually high number of people showed up to vote in the early hours of voting on election day.
The last question is just what is too long to wait. Our experience tells us that it differs from voter to voter. I’ve talked to voters who didn’t think that an hour was too long. I’ve had people who came to our office and early voted and complained because the wait was 10 minutes. There is remarkably little information about this that I’ve been able to find. Before we go too much further in finding solutions to a problem that is overstated already, it is important that election officials have a true target to shoot for. When officials actually get that number, I think you can expect those officials to take positive steps to achieve it.